I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012.

Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• Grognor estimated 0% on 2012-05-10
• Grognor said “100% certainty doesn’t represent actual confidence but rather that I don’t particularly care about my calibration if the prediction comes true” on 2012-05-10
• Grognor changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-31” and changed their prediction from “I will starve to death by the end of 2012.” on 2012-05-10
• gwern estimated 1% on 2012-05-10
• Leo estimated 1% on 2012-05-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-05-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-05-11
• papermachine estimated 0% on 2012-05-15
• alexwilliams123 estimated 0% on 2012-05-22
• davidiach estimated 1% on 2012-06-06
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2012-07-01
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2012-12-28
• gwern said “https://twitter.com/Grognor a post 19h ago. recent enough for me, marking wrong” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• Grognor said “in case that wasn’t recent enough for anyone else, hi” on 2013-01-01