Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart.

Created by gwern on 2012-05-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-02-27.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2012-05-14
• gwern said “statements in IRC raise the probability he will not fit in and last even the first month…” on 2012-05-14
• PseudonymousUser said “gwern says will mark this Right if the conditional fails” on 2012-05-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 82% on 2012-05-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2012-05-14
• papermachine estimated 20% and said “o/’ Dream, the impossible dream~ o/’” on 2012-05-15
• Grognor said “I’m pretty sure I’m biased in some direction, but I don’t know which.” on 2012-05-17
• Grognor said “Should this start on the day of my paid orientation (5/19/12)? my first day of paid training (5/21/12)? or today, 5/22/12, my first “real” day?” on 2012-05-22
• Jayson Virissimo said “I say “working” starts on the “hire date”.” on 2012-05-22
• Grognor said “Four months and two days so far.” on 2012-08-24
• Grognor said “*four months and three days (sure wish you could edit comments)” on 2012-08-24
• Grognor   judged this prediction right on 2013-02-27.