Stock market will not crash before the next US presidential elections

Created by ufo42 on 2012-05-28; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.

• ufo42 estimated 85% on 2012-05-28
• RandomThinker said “What’s a crash? 30% loss from the level it is now? ” on 2012-05-28
• Tuxedage estimated 98% on 2012-06-10
• jdeva estimated 97% on 2012-10-14
• gwern estimated 98% and said “suppose the market crashes 1 day out of every 4 years on average. there are 25 days left, so the risk is roughly: 25 * (1 / 365*4) = 0.017 = 0.02 = 2%, and 100% – 2% = 98%. agree with RandomThinker what is a crash? would a flashcrash count?” on 2012-10-14
• RandomThinker said “Not sure what’s a crash. I’ll let someone else mark. But stock market did pretty good except for a small correction in June.” on 2012-11-07
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.