Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
- RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2012-05-29
- RandomThinker said “Lockup expiring in 3 months, lots and lots of shares to be absorbed. http://tucsoncitizen.com/usa-today-news/2012/05/28/insiders-may-unleash-flood-of-facebook-shares/” on 2012-05-29
- RandomThinker changed their prediction from “Facebook will fall as low as $15 before the end of 2012” on 2012-05-29
- Porejide estimated 30% on 2012-05-29
- davidiach estimated 35% on 2012-06-06
- RandomThinker said “Well this is starting to get in play, after ZNGA fell below $3. It’s at $23 in post market today.” on 2012-07-26
- RandomThinker said “$19 now” on 2012-08-16
- RandomThinker said “$17.7 now… I think it’ll stop just slightly above 15, but we’ll see.” on 2012-09-04
- gwern estimated 60% and said “still a lot of time in 2012… what is special about $15? also, you mean that the price has to touch $14.99 or $15.00, $15.50 doesn’t count? Because $15.50 sounds more than ‘slightly above 15’” on 2012-09-05
- RandomThinker said “@gwern well $15 is picked out of a hat, but you need a hard line for a prediction. As for just above, that’s just color commentary since I think it ultimately won’t hit 15 (I said 45% to hit). ” on 2012-09-05
- Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2012-11-09
- gwern said “yahoo finance seems to think the low for the last year was 17.55. marking wrong” on 2012-12-31
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.