The Indiana-Michigan border radiation anomaly will turn out to be the result of a secret nuclear test.

Created by dain on 2012-06-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• dain estimated 0% on 2012-06-08
• gwern said “define ‘nuclear test’. I agree a fullscale multi-megaton test is 0% since if nothing else seismographs would have revealed it, but what about, say, a subcritical test?” on 2012-06-09
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.