F. Castro outlives Thatcher

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.

• chimpsky estimated 25% on 2012-06-10
• chimpsky said “to clarify, by ‘outlives’ I mean ‘dies before’, not ‘is older at time of death than’” on 2012-06-10
• chimpsky said “‘dies after’, rather” on 2012-06-10
• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2012-06-10
• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-06-10
• RandomThinker said “Thatcher is dead” on 2013-04-08
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2013-04-08.