Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2012-06-20
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/jun/20/ecuador-asylum-assange-refugees” on 2012-06-20
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11874911 residency offered earlier but retracted http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2010/11/2010113033515743921.html” on 2012-06-20
• RandomThinker estimated 41% on 2012-06-20
• RobertLumley estimated 45% on 2012-06-21
• gwern estimated 35% and said “accepting would land them in a world of problems, and I’ll wager Assange didn’t run it by them first.” on 2012-06-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2012-06-27
• chemotaxis101 estimated 35% on 2012-07-01
• RandomThinker said “getting closer, but still no dice … http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57493113-38/wikileaks-assange-reportedly-granted-asylum-by-ecuador/” on 2012-08-15
• RandomThinker estimated 65% and said “Decision expected Thursday http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/world/americas/ecuador-says-britain-threatened-to-enter-embassy-to-get-assange.html?_r=1&hp” on 2012-08-16
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-08-16.
• gwern said “turns out their leftist anti-american president offered it to Assange during an interview in Russia, and then Britain went and threatened to invade their embassy…” on 2012-08-16