Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-07-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 45% on 2012-07-01
• HonoreDB estimated 75% on 2012-07-05
• antsan estimated 60% on 2012-07-13
• gwern estimated 55% on 2012-07-14
• RandomThinker said “Not looking good for this. Obama seems serious, more than I thought he would. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/09/usa-fiscal-idUSL1E8M93SW20121109” on 2012-11-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 41% on 2012-11-10
• RandomThinker said “Ahh I never set the limit for “wealthy” It looks like the dividing line will be 400k per the latest compromise. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/us/politics/president-delivers-a-new-offer-on-the-fiscal-crisis-to-boehner.html?hp” on 2012-12-18
• RandomThinker said “What do you guys think the limit should be? The 2 numbers are $1m or $250k. Based on what people talked about before. What did you guys think back then when you first read the question?” on 2012-12-18
• gwern said “I assumed that there would be no changes and they would simply be renewed like before, so my prediction was wrong” on 2013-07-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.