Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2012-07-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 9% and said “http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html gives around a 10% chance of death in a year for that age range. November is less than a year, and he has very good medical care. ” on 2012-07-08
• RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-07-08
• Jayson Virissimo said “I’m updating quite a bit on the leaked document, but perhaps too much.” on 2012-07-09
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 10% on 2012-07-09
• Jayson Virissimo said “base…rate…neglect” on 2012-07-11
• gwern estimated 7% and said “sounds dispirited in the recent articles in Der Spiegel” on 2012-07-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2012-08-17
• kilobug estimated 10% on 2012-09-07
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2012-09-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-09-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2012-09-20
• Pablo estimated 2% on 2012-09-29
• chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2012-10-13
• Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “If the actuarial table JoshuaZ posted gives a probability of 0.9 for survival for a year, then his probability of survival for 2 weeks is (0.9)^{1/24} which is about 0.995. Rounding up for good medical care. ” on 2012-10-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-10-16
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-10-30
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-31.
• RandomThinker said “Hmm, not dead, but retired. If you made the original prediction because you thought he might be gone, you should get partial credit!” on 2013-02-12