Microsoft's stock will go down between July 18, 2012 and the first of a) when Mark Penn leaves the company or Microsoft announces he's leaving and b) one year later.

Created by aaronsw on 2012-07-19; known on 2013-07-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.

• aaronsw estimated 60% on 2012-07-19
• RandomThinker estimated 45% and said “Not sure Mark Penn is all that important” on 2012-07-23
• gwern said “Penn is still at MS, so taking the second fork: google stocks tells me MS is up 4% over the last year. marking wrong.” on 2013-07-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-20.