Zhou Tong hacked Bitcoinica's MtGox account in July 2012, and this is known before 2016

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2012-07-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2012-07-26
• PseudonymousUser said “https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=95738.0;all” on 2012-07-26
• PseudonymousUser said “https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=95795.0;all is practically an “I did it”” on 2012-07-26
• gwern said “are you expecting him to confess or something? he’s said his BS spiel, and that’s where it’ll lie until legal stuff finishes with a settlement or something” on 2012-07-26
• PseudonymousUser said “the BS “my criminal Chinese friend did it” post wasn’t around when I predicted. I might as well mark this right, since I’m in the > 99.5% zone.” on 2012-07-26
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2012-07-26.
• JoshuaZ said “While I assign a high probability to this explanation, it still seems in the air enough that marking it right seems somewhat premature. ” on 2012-07-29
• PseudonymousUser said “His continued commenting on the second thread (incl. the quick guilt-driven return of the money) continued to add to the evidence that he did it. The probability is so high that it’s a little silly to leave this Unknown.” on 2012-07-29
• PseudonymousUser said “An alternative explanation that shows why all the evidence points to him, and why he acts just like he did it, but did not actually do it, would have quite a few bits indeed.” on 2012-07-29
• gwern said “I think it’s pretty lame you closed this already.” on 2012-08-01