No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-07-26
- army1987 estimated 70% on 2012-08-05
- army1987 estimated 85% on 2012-08-05
- Jayson Virissimo said “How would you know if a new law didn’t result from the shooting?” on 2012-08-05
- RandomThinker said “@Jayson The Colorado shooting is such a big deal that any politician that wants to get the law passed will use it as justification” on 2012-08-06
- RobertLumley said “Would this count repeal of current gun laws as a law?” on 2012-08-16
- RandomThinker said “@robert yes” on 2012-08-16
- PseudonymousUser said “people lie about causality all the time, and there are multiple causes for things” on 2012-08-17
- RandomThinker said “@Bob since I’m predicting no change, I’m willing to attribute any significant change in current law in 2012 to the shooting, if you want to take the other side” on 2012-08-17
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% and said “BTW, per RandomThinker, I am ignoring the ‘as a result of the Colorado shooting’ part of the statement.” on 2012-08-17
- kilobug estimated 85% and said “Too hot a topic for the running campaign. Maybe it would have if it weren’t election year.” on 2012-08-23
- Qiaochu estimated 95% on 2012-11-15
- ygert estimated 50% on 2012-12-16
- gwern said “I haven’t seen any recent legislation mentioned in the wake of the school shooting, and lots of articles saying obama and democrats were shunning the topic because of the election. marking right unless people object” on 2012-12-31
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2012-12-31.
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