An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10
- gwern estimated 5% on 2012-08-14
- gwern said “‘open’ here meaning avowed, acknowledged, out of the closet – not just rumors or general belief, but affirmation by the candidate that (s)he is atheist. May exclude agnostics when judging, not that I expect that to be a problem)” on 2012-08-14
- RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “These type of social changes happen a lot more suddenly than you think. In 1988, I’d have rated it at below 10% if you asked if a black person would be elected president in 20 years. ” on 2012-08-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-08-15
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-08-16
- RobertLumley estimated 15% on 2012-08-16
- gwern said “RandomThinker: yes, but all the polls I’ve heard of consistently rank atheists way at the bottom – below blacks.” on 2012-08-19
- tedks estimated 1% on 2012-08-20
- RandomThinker said “@gwern polls from 1980s? that would be interesting to compare” on 2012-08-20
- kilobug estimated 10% and said “Around 10% of Americans are atheists, and while being atheist lowers chance of being elected, it also correlates with being highly educated and rational, which should increase odds. So I’m guessing both bias roughly cancel the other.” on 2012-08-23
- gwern said “kilobug: then why haven’t there been any? 1 president every 8 years, and AFAIK atheism rates have at most doubled over the last century… being highly educated & rational might correlate with being a covert atheist, rather.” on 2012-08-23
- Grognor estimated 4% and said “only six elections, fah” on 2012-08-24
- Porejide estimated 5% on 2012-08-25
- Zach Aletheia estimated 5% on 2012-08-27
- Pablo estimated 3% on 2012-09-30
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2013-11-15
- adbge estimated 6% on 2013-11-15
- themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-10-10
- pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-10
- pranomostro said “I am probably overestimating the openness of american culture.” on 2018-12-10
- pranomostro estimated 7% and said “On a second thought, updating downwards.” on 2018-12-10
- Baeboo estimated 6% on 2018-12-12