Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-16
• gwern estimated 55% on 2012-08-19
• Jayson Virissimo said “Can we reword this without the term ‘storm’? It seems to vague and ambiguous. Would them walking in the front door with a warrant count as ‘storming’?” on 2012-08-20
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “Assuming Assange stays there, British will not storm Ecuador embassy before end of 2013” on 2012-08-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2012-08-20
• tedks estimated 50% on 2012-08-20
• kilobug estimated 70% and said “Not with Unasur and Russia warning them to not do it, it would endanger UK embassy all over the world.” on 2012-08-23
• gwern said “http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/9498115/WikiLeaks-Met-police-embarrassed-as-Assange-arrest-plan-revealed.html” on 2012-08-25
• kilobug estimated 90% and said “If they had to do it, they would have done it already.” on 2012-11-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2013-12-31.