Romney will eventually release more tax returns, before 2012 election

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2012-11-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-16
• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-08-19
• RandomThinker said “Hey he just released his 2011 returns, in addition to his 2010 returns, which he released back when I made the prediction. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/us/politics/under-pressure-romney-offers-more-tax-data.html?_r=1&hp” on 2012-09-22
• RandomThinker said “Debating if I should roll this over to say he’s going to release even more returns :)” on 2012-09-22
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-22.
• gwern said “mm, you should have been clearer that the pluralization was not necessary – I was reading it as >=2 or >1, not >=1.” on 2012-09-22
• RandomThinker said “@gwern it makes a difference to your assessment if he was going to one more return vs. 2 more returns? He already released 1.” on 2012-09-23
• gwern said “Random, I think the actual outcome has demonstrated as much as possible that releasing 1 vs releasing 2 returns are different events with different probabilities…” on 2012-09-23