George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• Lyaer estimated 85% on 2012-08-18
• RandomThinker estimated 40% on 2012-08-19
• gwern estimated 60% and said “feast-dance = 6 years; 2016-2011=5 years.” on 2012-08-19
• RandomThinker said “Feast-dance took a redic long time. is he going to do that every time?” on 2012-08-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-08-21
• gwern said “still very vague estimates about 2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter so marking right” on 2016-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.