The world will not end before 2050

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02

• Lyaer estimated 99% on 2012-08-18
• Lyaer changed the deadline from “on 2050-01-01” and made the prediction on 2012-08-18
• kilobug estimated 99% and said “But depends what you mean with “world will end”.” on 2012-08-23
• gwern estimated 90% and said “indeed. do rogue AI count?” on 2012-08-23
• Lyaer said “For the sake of clarification, let’s say that the planet will still be intact and humanity will still be a prevalent species.” on 2012-08-26
• Lyaer said “If an event occurs that allows the above but is still widely considered an end-time scenario (e.g. the rapture), and the consensus of educated neutral observers is that it has occurred, that’s a partial failure, and I’m wrong enough.” on 2012-08-26
• Tuxedage estimated 100% on 2013-01-03
• Tuxedage said “Because of the philosophy behind Quantum Suicide.” on 2013-01-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 63% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 75% on 2018-12-10
• n99 estimated 100% on 2022-10-28