Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-08-21
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-08-21
• kilobug estimated 60% and said “Time is playing for the rebels, they get external support while Assad is isolated. If he couldn’t crush the rebellion yet, he won’t, so he’ll likely lose.” on 2012-08-23
• gwern estimated 50% and said “time also plays into assad’s hands as the rebels use up their limited resources, and they get demoralized or realize they miscalculated in expecting America to intervene and win the war for them” on 2012-08-23
• fiftytwo estimated 10% and said “The rebels are slowly gaining ground, but there’s no realistic chance of them gaining power by the end of the year. Only realistic possibility is foreign intervention or palace coup, neither seem likely. ” on 2012-12-04
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2012-12-04
• Qiaochu estimated 20% on 2012-12-06
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.