North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013.

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-21
• RandomThinker said “Straightforward extrapolation http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/08/21/world/asia/ap-as-nkorea-nuclear.html?hp” on 2012-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-08-21
• gwern estimated 40% and said ““though it may take several more years before it is fully operational, an analyst said Tuesday”; extortion works best if the threats are drawn out” on 2012-08-23
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yongbyon_Nuclear_Scientific_Research_Center#2013_restart_of_operation” on 2013-11-16
• wiilly estimated 0% on 2013-11-24
• RandomThinker said “Hard to say if this is true or not. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10480843/North-Korea-restarts-nuclear-reactor-UN-says.html” on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker said “Certainly some sources have reported it as of end of 2013.” on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker said “http://38north.org/2013/12/yongbyon122313/” on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker said “But this pred was made in 2012, a year plus in advance of the rumors of restart, so pretty close. ” on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker said “WSJ said yes as of Jan 2014. LA Times said yes as of Oct 2013. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303743604579351672761924970 http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-north-korea-nuclear-reactor-restart-20131008-story.html” on 2014-07-09
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2014-07-09.