Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

• RandomThinker estimated 75% on 2012-08-21
• RandomThinker said “Romney’s currently more, so kind of a no brainer.” on 2012-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2012-08-21
• gwern estimated 80% and said “read big New Yorker article on this the other day, it seemed very pessimistic on Obama upping his fundraising game over Romney” on 2012-08-23
• RandomThinker said “Obama just overtook Romney for August. This is going to be bad for my calibration. I fell for an urban myth. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/10/barack-obama-beats-mitt-r_n_1869651.html” on 2012-09-16
• RandomThinker said “Pretty good link showing the totals http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance Obama 931m v. Romney 880m. Obama ahead by 50m.” on 2012-10-29
• RandomThinker said “Really close. Up through Oct, Obama spent $30m more than Romney http://economiccollapsenews.com/2012/11/06/report-mitt-romney-barack-obama-campaigns-spend-total-of-1-7-billion/” on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker said “UK paper says Romney 1.125b, Obama 1.076b total fundraising as of Nov 4. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/obama-and-romney-make-closing-arguments-as-candidates-prepare-for-frenetic-final-campaign-drive-8281156.html” on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker said “According to opensecrets, Romney ended up spending more than Obama, mainly due to superpac money. http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/index.php ” on 2012-11-10
• RandomThinker said “This prediction is hard to grade though because it’s not clear what’s raising more cash. What do you guys think?” on 2012-11-10
• RandomThinker said “Still clear as mud. NPR said each candidate above a billion, by final tally. http://www.npr.org/2012/12/07/166707553/2012-presidential-election-breaks-fundraising-record” on 2012-12-12
• RandomThinker said “HuffPost says Obama raised 1.24b, Romney 923m. Not sure why the numbers are different. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/07/obama-fundraising-campaign_n_2257283.html In total repubs outspent dems though.” on 2012-12-12
• RandomThinker said “I’m going to call this right according to open secrets. The numbers look like they’ve stabilized. And I’m going to include SuperPAC money as part of the money “raised”. http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-03.