Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2012-08-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-08-22
• RandomThinker said “can he change his position in writing and then deny it if asked by the press?” on 2012-08-22
• gwern estimated 15% and said “I’d be more comfortable with this if there were some sort of concrete specification…” on 2012-08-23
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-08-27
• NathanMcKnight said “Random: I think a statement either written or verbal would be confirmation, as long as it is a statement about policy, not just personal beliefs. ” on 2012-08-30
• RandomThinker said “@Nathan what i mean is that he might make a general statement or have written document that says that he adopts the GOP platform as a whole, including the abortion stuff, and when asked about it, he weasels out of it.” on 2012-08-31
• bsm estimated 10% on 2012-09-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2012-09-04
• NathanMcKnight said “@Random: I think flip-flopping counts as changing his position. The prediction isn’t asserting anything about the duration of the change. ” on 2012-09-07
• NathanMcKnight said “…nor the consistency of the message. I’m simply saying, that there’s a significant (20%) chance that somewhere, Romney will go on the record supporting the GOP platform. ” on 2012-09-07
• Filipe estimated 10% on 2012-09-08
• RandomThinker said “Did he?” on 2012-11-07
• JoshuaZ said “I didn’t see any indication of this. If no one objects will mark as “wrong”. ” on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-08.