Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014.

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• Kaj_Sotala estimated 98% on 2012-08-22
• Kaj_Sotala said “http://squid314.livejournal.com/323919.html?thread=2454607#t2454607 ; http://squid314.livejournal.com/323919.html?thread=2457167#t2457167” on 2012-08-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2012-08-22
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2012-08-23
• muflax estimated 99% and said “I’d give better odds for something like “theism is reasonable if you accept these axioms over those other ones, and that choice depends mostly on intuition”” on 2012-08-23
• gwern estimated 95% on 2012-08-23
• Grognor estimated 99% on 2012-08-24
• lukeprog estimated 96% on 2012-09-04
• Will Newsome estimated 95% and said “muflax: Alternatively, he just has to accept the axioms of algorithmic information theory and then be persuaded that certain kinds of syncretism are normatively justifiable and not just rationalizations. Moreso if you’re doing decision theory.” on 2012-09-05
• Filipe estimated 95% on 2012-09-07
• Leo estimated 95% on 2012-09-07
• graehl estimated 97% and said “best chance for conversion: he falls in love with an anti-atheist. lover conquers all. worst chance: he stumbles upon a compelling reason to believe in some particular god.” on 2012-09-22
• Pablo estimated 98% on 2012-09-29
• drethelin estimated 97% on 2012-10-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2013-11-15
• ygert   judged this prediction right on 2013-12-31.
• ygert said “Unless Scott says otherwise? I have no inside line to him, but as far as I can tell, it is safe to mark this as wrong. At the very least, he hasn’t posted on his blog that he converted to some religion or another…” on 2013-12-31
• ygert said “*right” on 2013-12-31
• ArisKatsaris said “Scott did call himself an atheist just three days ago (2013-12-28) on his current blog, so I’m pretty sure the prediction is indeed right.” on 2014-01-01