China's one child policy will end before 2032

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-16.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-27
• RandomThinker said “I’m including a substantive loosening as “end”” on 2012-08-27
• gwern said “how would you judge this? as far as I’m aware, it’s not a single simple law or regulation. it’s apparently already loosening a lot” on 2012-08-28
• RandomThinker said “@gwern It would have to be common knowledge by then, like reported as a trend article in the NYT. Since I don’t know enough about Chinese laws, I can’t be more specific than that :)” on 2012-08-28
• seifip estimated 95% on 2013-04-14
• RandomThinker said “Well it happened. Much faster than I thought. Didn’t have to use a 20 yr end date.http://www.voanews.com/content/china-to-abolish-labor-camps-loosen-onechild-policy/1790714.html” on 2013-11-16
• RandomThinker said “Ehh it’s only easing not ending, I suppose we can leave this hanging for a while.” on 2013-11-16
• RandomThinker said “Although slate reports it as “end” http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/11/15/china_reforms_one_child_policy_little_siblings_coming.html” on 2013-11-16
• RandomThinker said “NYT calls it “the first significant nationwide easing of family size restrictions that have been in place since the 1970s” so I guess I’ll give this as a yes, given my comment on 8-27. ” on 2013-11-16
• RandomThinker said “http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/world/asia/china-to-loosen-its-one-child-policy.html?hp” on 2013-11-16
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2013-11-16.
• RandomThinker said “May go to universal 2 child policy soon. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/23/china_s_one_child_policy_will_soon_be_a_two_child_policy_that_might_not.html” on 2015-07-23
• RandomThinker said “Happened. 3 years instead of 20 years.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0” on 2015-10-29