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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01

  • RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-27
  • gwern estimated 70% and said “so I guess this is de facto a bet on the Chinese lunar missions not doing well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Programon 2012-08-28
  • RandomThinker said “@gwern interesting. I didn’t know the Chinese had such definite plans. But still they aren’t planning to go until 2025 at the earliest and it’s easy to delay.on 2012-08-28
  • 1337_w0n estimated 0% and said “0.001% I place a high confidence on men already having visited, in 1969.on 2012-08-28
  • gwern said “har har, 1337_w0n.on 2012-08-28
  • RandomThinker changed their prediction from “No human will visit the moon before 2032” on 2012-08-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 60% on 2012-08-28
  • Ken estimated 60% on 2012-11-12
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “By 2032 a lunar mission will be possible at less cost than ever before.on 2016-02-16
  • themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-03-11
  • pranomostro estimated 66% on 2018-12-10
  • Baeboo estimated 77% on 2018-12-12
  • Baeboo estimated 73% on 2018-12-12
  • amadeu estimated 60% on 2019-04-07