Matthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full

Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-08-29
• gwern said “Wright has wagered at even odds against several score people a total of >10k btc or 100k USD: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751 betsofbitcoin giving 4:7 odds http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=588” on 2012-08-29
• gwern said “relevant threads: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102515.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102648.20 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102327.180” on 2012-08-29
• gwern said “Wright posts: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=24749;sa=showPosts still taking bets?! heads you lose tails I win…?” on 2012-08-29
• gwern said “I am deeply impressed by the idiocy of https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102918.msg1146360#msg1146360 I’d link to http://www.gwern.net/docs/1994-falk but it be lost on such a person. with such arguments, he may even believe himself” on 2012-08-30
• gwern said “lost, obviously, and is refusing to pay out based on some insane reading of his original post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.msg1173889#msg1173889 marking wrong.” on 2012-09-09
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-09.