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Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility

Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2012-08-30
  • gwern said “http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/08/indian_fertilit.html Caplan’s victory condition: India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0” on 2012-08-30
  • gwern said “data metric: “We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.”; bumped due date out to June of the next year to allow for publication delays & the official bet resolution” on 2012-08-30
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% on 2012-08-31
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Replacement rate is actually 2.33, not 2.1. That bet is wrongly worded. The death rate in emerging markets is higher than the West.” on 2016-01-20
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Fertility has been declining steadily, so that bet will come true by that date.” on 2016-01-20
  • themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 80% on 2018-12-10