DNB/nicotine day 5: active?

Created by gwern on 2012-09-01; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-09-01
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-01.
• gwern changed their prediction from “DNB/nicotine day 5y: active?” on 2012-09-03