A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-09-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-09-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-09-03
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-09-03
• bsm estimated 5% on 2012-09-03
• bsm estimated 5% on 2012-09-03
• gwern estimated 3% and said “just to be clear, we’re talking about the Libertarian party’s presidential nomination, which must be a different person from the Republican party’s nomination, right?” on 2012-09-03
• Ben Doherty estimated 8% on 2012-09-04
• Jayson Virissimo said “The capital ‘L’ usually means the party, not the political philosophy.” on 2012-09-04
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% on 2012-09-05
• kilobug estimated 5% on 2012-09-07
• NathanMcKnight said “Yes, I’m talking about the Libertarian Party.” on 2012-09-07
• William-Quixote estimated 5% on 2012-09-08
• jbeshir estimated 1% on 2012-09-10
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-09-10
• faws estimated 3% on 2012-09-10
• Athrelon estimated 1% on 2012-09-10
• John Maxwell IV estimated 1% on 2012-09-11
• NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “A Libertarian candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate.” on 2012-09-13
• Leo estimated 2% on 2012-09-15
• Tuxedage estimated 4% on 2013-01-13
• Cy Fleming estimated 4% on 2013-01-16
• andrevan estimated 2% on 2013-02-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-11-05
• adbge estimated 1% on 2013-11-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-04-11
• themusicgod1 said “yeah no” on 2016-11-09
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.