At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04

• NancyLebovitz estimated 50% on 2012-09-04
• RandomThinker said “When? They had one while they were in the white house, to be admitted later?” on 2012-09-04
• gwern estimated 25% and said “googling, an upper bound on eating disorders in women is 10%; by the sum rule, 0.10+0.10-(0.10*0.10)=0.19. SES usually reduces disorders/ill-health, and admitting it is also a problem.” on 2012-09-04
• gwern said “RandomThinker: I assume she means at any point up to September 2032. they’ll only be in the white house for 4 years, 8 max, are closely supervised there (esp by Michelle), and the effects will last a lifetime” on 2012-09-04
• NancyLebovitz said “gwern got it— any point within the next 20 years.I think it’s reasonable to go above the stats for a random person because I’ve read a lot of accounts of eating disorders, and early dieting (whether imposed or spontaneous) ” on 2012-09-04
• NancyLebovitz said “seems to be a risk factor.This isn’t study-based, and I don’t know how common early dieting is.” on 2012-09-04
• William-Quixote estimated 35% on 2012-09-08
• Leo estimated 40% on 2012-09-09
• Tuxedage estimated 25% on 2013-01-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 18% and said “maybe, but we’ll never know” on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-12-10