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Silk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 15% on 2012-09-04
  • gwern said “marked wrong if SR shuts down or goes under for any reason; prediction inspiration: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102829.0 I strongly doubt pirate will be paying out and currently doubt he was tied to SR in any way” on 2012-09-04
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.