LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2012-09-07
  • gwern said “So far so good.on 2013-10-16
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2017-09-30” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16
  • themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-10-10
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 4% on 2017-09-06
  • Baeboo estimated 4% on 2017-09-18
  • Somni estimated 2% on 2017-09-20
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-09-30.
  • lazarus   judged this prediction right on 2018-10-01.
  • lazarus   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-10-01.

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