Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-09-07
• gwern said “https://plus.google.com/106808239073321070854/posts/gKPoQRZVe3p Charles, I don’t think a Clinton White House is plausible in 2016 at all.” on 2012-09-07
• gwern said “Running for President is exhausting: Hillary is done just like McCain is done. She’s capped her career with what is by most accounts an excellent tour as SecState and she’s seen first hand again how brutal domestic politics has become.” on 2012-09-07
• gwern said “+nom: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8163 +nom&victory: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8164” on 2012-09-07
• bsm estimated 20% on 2012-09-07
• kilobug estimated 25% on 2012-09-07
• RandomThinker estimated 40% and said “I screwed up my probability estimates on her winning nomination and winning president, because I didn’t take this into account. Oh well I’ll be inconsistent.” on 2012-09-08
• William-Quixote estimated 35% on 2012-09-08
• drethelin estimated 45% on 2012-09-09
• NathanMcKnight estimated 40% on 2012-09-10
• jakewalker estimated 20% and said “She’s going to be 68 years old. That means she’d be 72 at end of term (76 at end of second term). Only Ronald Reagan and William Henry Harrison have been that old when innaugerated.If she was 5 years younger, this would be 60%” on 2012-09-13
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2012-09-15
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 25% on 2012-09-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-09-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 18% on 2012-09-25
• Ken estimated 15% on 2012-11-12
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% and said “Nate Silver gave her subjective plurality probability of being the Democratic nominee in 2016” on 2012-11-23
• alecbrooks estimated 25% on 2013-01-31
• Elithrion estimated 55% on 2013-02-01
• alanog estimated 40% on 2013-02-02
• dhoe estimated 30% on 2013-02-02
• simplicio estimated 25% on 2013-02-21
• Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2013-02-25
• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% and said “A few years’ vacation before spending your golden years as president is one of the only good reasons to step down as Secretary of State. ” on 2013-09-20
• RandomThinker estimated 60% on 2013-09-20
• rebellionkid estimated 70% on 2014-06-12
• Ben Doherty estimated 45% on 2014-06-12
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 90% and said “Not certain yet, but I think at this point it would take something unexpected for her to not at least run.” on 2015-03-20
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2015-04-27.