Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2012-09-07
• Ben Doherty estimated 12% and said “and and and …” on 2012-09-07
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-09-08
• William-Quixote estimated 9% on 2012-09-08
• drethelin estimated 15% on 2012-09-09
• alecbrooks estimated 7% and said “This sort of conditional is going to be slim.” on 2013-01-31
• alanog estimated 15% on 2013-02-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-11
• NathanMcKnight estimated 78% on 2016-06-08
• Bruno Parga estimated 56% on 2016-07-31
• EloiseRosen estimated 78% on 2016-07-31
• two2thehead estimated 90% on 2016-10-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-03” on 2016-11-03
• apetiss estimated 66% on 2016-11-03
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.