I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07

• gwern estimated 97% on 2012-09-07
• gwern said “based on http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8172 ; useful for http://www.gwern.net/Nicotine & http://www.gwern – 5 years: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8179” on 2012-09-07
• William-Quixote estimated 20% and said “If Cuba liberalizes, and you visit there, you might want to try a cigar as a touristy thing to do. 25 years is a long time.” on 2012-09-08
• drethelin estimated 60% on 2012-09-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 95% on 2018-12-09