PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

The Open Thread post at Less Wrong will be posted four times a month rather than its current twice a month within a year.

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-09-08; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.

  • NancyLebovitz estimated 75% on 2012-09-09
  • gwern estimated 45% and said “4 is pretty excessive and leads to fragmentation” on 2012-09-09
  • NancyLebovitz changed the deadline from “on 2012-09-08” on 2012-09-09
  • NancyLebovitz said “I should have predicted that I would make a significant typo— the date is now actually a year from now. As for the prediction, there’s a limit to how many comments LW can handle in a thread.” on 2012-09-09
  • NancyLebovitz said “Other possibilities: (more likely) Open thread gets a topic split. (Much less likely) Someone figures out a better way to handle long threads.” on 2012-09-09
  • John Maxwell IV estimated 10% and said “It doesn’t look like the number of comments per thread has gone up all that much over the past six month of open threads: http://lesswrong.com/user/OpenThreadGuy/submitted/” on 2012-09-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2012-09-11
  • William-Quixote estimated 30% on 2013-07-01
  • ygert   judged this prediction right on 2013-08-30.
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