My extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-09-10
• gwern said “https://plus.google.com/103530621949492999968/posts/5p1G9CZPBxR if it didn’t work the first time, why would it work elsewhere?” on 2012-09-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-10.