By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-09-15
• jakewalker estimated 40% and said “Seems like a high likelihood this is true, I just don’t expect NASA to make a definitive announcement on it before the end of the year” on 2012-09-15
• RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “what jake says” on 2012-09-16
• William-Quixote estimated 50% on 2012-09-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-09-16
• gwern said “any updates?” on 2013-07-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-07-19.