There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored)

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-09-15
• William-Quixote estimated 15% and said “I could see a few kooks doing damage, but don’t believe the US would have major riots in any cities or attacks on embassies ” on 2012-09-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2012-09-16
• gwern estimated 10% and said “please operationalize ‘significant uproar’” on 2012-09-16
• RandomThinker said “@gwern something that lands on main page of the nyt web site” on 2012-09-16
• beo_shaffer estimated 10% on 2012-09-16
• gwern estimated 50% and said “so any christian protest of a play or art exhibition or anything which makes the NYT counts? OK then…” on 2012-09-16
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2012-09-17
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2012-09-17
• scav estimated 5% and said “So Americans will be killing embassy staff and rioting over a youtube video? Only very sheltered people can get that worked up about the internet. The US has sufficient internal sources of outrage and they’ve never got that bad yet.” on 2012-09-19
• average_joe estimated 24% on 2015-08-28
• Afforess said “Nope. There is still 3 weeks left, but no events of this nature came to pass.” on 2015-09-12
• Josh Holland estimated 1% on 2015-09-25
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-10-06.