Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis

Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-09-16
• gwern said ““I expect that certain commodities, like copper, will drop by 50% or more in the next two to three years.” http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/16/by-2015-hard-commodity-prices-will-have-collapsed/” on 2012-09-16
• gwern said “will judge by COMEX spot copper price; http://www.metalprices.com/metal/copper/cme-future-copper-hg1! august 2012 price of 3.9850 avg, so judge right if august 2015avg is <=1.9925” on 2012-09-16
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-09-16
• jakewalker estimated 20% on 2012-09-22
• kuudes estimated 30% on 2015-06-29
• Afforess said “This prediction actually seems to be pretty close. If it had been given another year, it might have been right. As of now, prices have fallen about 40% since late 2012.” on 2015-08-19
• average_joe estimated 28% on 2015-08-28
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-09-17.
• kuudes said “Seems to have been over 2.20 all the time.” on 2015-09-17