HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast.
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
- RobertLumley estimated 70% on 2012-09-17
- RobertLumley said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bto/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/7g71” on 2012-09-17
- RobertLumley said “Related to: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8287” on 2012-09-17
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 20% on 2012-09-17
- gwern estimated 75% and said “highly plausible since we already know dementors=Death. Why the skepticism, Emanuel?” on 2012-09-17
- William-Quixote estimated 15% and said “There seem to be more dementors than would be the case if each needed this ritual. It also seems that killing dementors is “new” not something lost. Wizards of old would not have had transhumanism to power patronus charms” on 2012-09-17
- RobertLumley said “William, I don’t agree. Wizard of old created the patronous charm, so surely at one point they knew its true form.” on 2012-09-18
- Emanuel Rylke said “gwern: just don’t want to privilege the hypothesis.” on 2012-09-18
- Grognor estimated 40% and said “exact words. the spirit of the prediction will be fulfilled if it merely ‘summons’ a dementor, but the word it uses is ‘create’. suggest changing it.” on 2012-09-28
- nohat estimated 65% and said “Fairly obviously a reference to dementors. May not be pursued further, so my estimate is significantly lower than if I was simply predicting the truth.” on 2012-09-29
- RobertLumley said “Is there general agreement with Grognor? I will change it if most agree.” on 2012-09-30
- JoshuaZ estimated 41% and said “Low estimate since I’m not sure it will be stated explicitly in the text. ” on 2012-09-30
- NancyLebovitz said “Least convenient world: If someone has been killed while polyjuiced into the other gender, which one counts for purposes of the spell?” on 2012-10-01
- ChristianKl estimated 65% and said “Lucius can’t cast a patrenos spell. Creating a dementor and telling him to assignate Lucius would be at this point Harry best bet kill Lucius in a way that has plausible denialability. ” on 2013-03-24
- Kurosymph estimated 80% on 2013-06-27
- 75th estimated 35% and said “I’m not sure the wording on this one is very good. I believe with 75% confidence that the ritual does create a dementor, but I think there’s only a 35% chance that this will be revealed in the story, as the prediction states.” on 2013-07-13
- Osuniev estimated 80% and said “could be revealed in an author’s note of course.” on 2013-08-01
- JayDee estimated 20% on 2013-08-21
- 75th estimated 100% and said “My previous prediction made me a big fat hypocrite. I used “will be revealed” in one of my own predictions to indicate out-of-story Word of God being sufficient, and now here I am saying it’s not.” on 2013-12-16
- 75th estimated 75% and said “Enh, 100% was a hasty overreaction, my earlier statement was actually the truth” on 2013-12-16
- jbluphin estimated 15% on 2014-02-01
- nigr estimated 50% on 2014-02-25
- player_03 estimated 80% and said “Assuming Word of God counts.” on 2014-04-26
- Jenson estimated 75% on 2014-06-26
- RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-05
- quicklystarfish estimated 80% on 2015-02-16
- rebellionkid said “Was there WoG on this? Link?” on 2015-03-24
- Osuniev judged this prediction right on 2015-03-28.