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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor.

Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.

  • RobertLumley estimated 60% on 2012-09-17
  • RobertLumley said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/bto/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/7g71Related to: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8286” on 2012-09-17
  • RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be be used to create a dementor.” on 2012-09-17
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “who are we thinking will use it?” on 2012-09-17
  • William-Quixote estimated 14% and said “Chekhov’s gun theory, if this is what it does than it will be used, so only just lower than my related estimate. ” on 2012-09-17
  • RobertLumley said “Gwern, I mentioned on LW that I think it may be Quirrell, given that Voldie used dementors in cannon in his army. I’m really not sure though. I have a really hard time placing that.” on 2012-09-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2012-09-30
  • ChristianKl estimated 25% on 2013-03-24
  • TheOriginalSoni estimated 12% on 2013-07-25
  • nigr estimated 1% on 2014-02-25
  • player_03 estimated 15% and said “I feel like the important thing would be the revelation that the “counterspell to dismiss Death” has been rediscovered. Plus, given Harry’s patronus, dementors aren’t serious obstacles anymore.” on 2014-04-26
  • RobertLumley changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-05
  • quicklystarfish estimated 4% on 2015-02-16
  • player_03   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-16.
  • player_03 said “Not during the story, at least. Amelia Bones indicated that the lost Dementor stayed lost.” on 2015-03-16
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