2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015.

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

• jarlathhealy estimated 85% on 2012-09-17
• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-09-18
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-09-18
• RandomThinker said “@jaria you should fix your expiration date to end of 2015.” on 2012-09-19
• jarlathhealy changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-09-24
• gwern said “I’ve fixed all the dates” on 2012-09-24
• Sniffnoy   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-29.