2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu.

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• jarlathhealy estimated 95% on 2012-09-17
• gwern estimated 20% and said “what on earth does the partially effective HIV vaccine have to do with cold and flus?” on 2012-09-18
• RandomThinker estimated 15% and said “combo prediction. First vaccine for HIV by 2018, then clinical trails for cold and flu.” on 2012-09-18
• jarlathhealy changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-09-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-12-08
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.