2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01

• jarlathhealy estimated 95% on 2012-09-17
• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-09-18
• RandomThinker estimated 30% on 2012-09-18
• jarlathhealy changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-09-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 37% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 50% on 2018-12-09
• Baeboo estimated 36% on 2018-12-12
• Bruno Parga estimated 10% on 2019-01-01
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “The odds that it exists at all are significantly higher than that it is readily available worldwide.” on 2020-02-01
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2020-11-20