Hezbollah disbanded by 2020

Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.

• Jach estimated 20% on 2012-09-19
• RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-09-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-09-19
• gwern estimated 10% and said “to be replaced by?” on 2012-09-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 48% on 2016-07-30
• two2thehead estimated 10% and said “Iran will use Hezhollah as a spoiler in Lebanon. ” on 2016-07-30
• two2thehead said “Add to the fact that Syria has now moved further from the Iranian sphere of influence (as a result of a civil war which lessened considerably the power of the al Assad regime),” on 2016-07-30
• two2thehead said “ it stands to reason that Iranian help will almost guarantee a Hezbollah or similar variant existing.” on 2016-07-30
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-05-02
• stepan estimated 0% on 2020-02-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-06-17.