Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-09-21
• RandomThinker said “includes if they are 50-50 but Biden can cast the deciding vote” on 2012-09-21
• RandomThinker said “Wow Intrade went from 50-50 to 20% chance in like a day. http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=639655” on 2012-09-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “The volume on intrade for that prediction is really small, so sudden movement shouldn’t be that surprising. ” on 2012-09-21
• gwern estimated 60% on 2012-09-21
• jakewalker estimated 42% on 2012-09-22
• William-Quixote estimated 60% on 2012-09-23
• Qiaochu estimated 86% and said “86.4% on FiveThirtyEight. ” on 2012-10-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% and said “Updating. Not convinced by FiveThirtyEight’s model. He’s put less work it seems into the Senate model. ” on 2012-10-15
• RandomThinker said “dem retain control of senate http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_21942680” on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2012-11-07.