Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-09-23
• RandomThinker said “I’ll give it to him if it drops more than 20%. Measure by S&P 500 index http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=4084BF76-035A-11E2-ABC8-002128049AD6” on 2012-09-23
• RandomThinker said “sorry, 20% or more” on 2012-09-23
• William-Quixote estimated 20% on 2012-09-23
• gwern estimated 25% and said “current index value: 1460. Will judge as right if the S&P is ever <=1168 by 1 January 2016.” on 2012-09-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 31% on 2012-09-24
• RandomThinker said “@gwern I think it shouldn’t be ever <=. At first I thought it should be <= in 2016 on the end date, but that’s a bit unfair to Paul Farrell. So let’s make it <=1168 anytime in the year 2016. ” on 2012-09-24
• RandomThinker changed the deadline from “on 2016-09-23” on 2012-09-24
• RandomThinker said “@gwern if you look at his example of 20% between 2000 and 2010, he’s talking about the end points. Otherwise he would say market is dropping 50%. ” on 2012-09-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 36% and said “running out of time.” on 2016-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.