No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years.

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.

• gwern estimated 97% on 2012-09-24
• gwern said “looking questionable whether it’ll even get off the ground – Romer has already abandoned it: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/09/paul-romer-on-what-happened-in-honduras.html” on 2012-09-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2012-09-25
• gwern said “Supreme Court ruled against: http://upsidedownworld.org/main/news-briefs-archives-68/3922-honduras-model-cities-definitively-unconstitutional--” on 2012-10-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2022-09-24.