Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin

Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-09-25
• gwern said “http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=688 excellent record so far – 2 years and still running” on 2012-09-25
• Jach estimated 25% on 2012-09-26
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 25% on 2012-09-26
• quicklystarfish estimated 25% on 2012-09-27
• onthestairs estimated 10% on 2012-09-27
• iconreforged estimated 20% on 2012-09-30
• chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2012-10-13
• Ken estimated 10% on 2012-11-12
• Qiaochu estimated 25% and said “First conviction recently-ish. Who knows? ” on 2013-03-17
• ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2013-03-18
• phreeza estimated 20% on 2013-03-19
• Pablo estimated 25% on 2013-04-02
• Malo estimated 10% on 2013-04-29
• ShIxtan estimated 15% on 2013-04-30
• Cy Fleming estimated 20% on 2013-04-30
• gwern said “SR still operating fine, and has weathered the DoS attacks.” on 2013-07-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.