HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story.

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

• learnmethis estimated 5% on 2012-09-26
• learnmethis said “note that this is much higher than the prior. My evidence for this is a literary intuition I have about the way Dumbledore’s approach to adventure is treated. Belief formed in Chapter 18.” on 2012-09-26
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 3% on 2012-09-26
• William-Quixote estimated 0% on 2012-09-27
• gwern estimated 15% and said “meta-fiction and fourth-wall breaking is heavy in eliezer’s fiction. the longer MoR is, the higher the probability of him using some of his standard tropes is” on 2012-09-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-09-27
• ygert estimated 25% on 2012-12-16
• quicklystarfish estimated 25% on 2013-03-03
• simplicio estimated 10% on 2013-03-04
• ChristianKl estimated 15% on 2013-03-24
• Kurosymph estimated 0% and said “Naw… harry is not wired that way, he never conceives anyone being above him” on 2013-06-27
• jtc510 estimated 1% and said “I don’t think EY would finish it that way. Harry MAY decide he is in some super AI, but even that seems unlikely to me.” on 2013-06-27
• nigr estimated 0% on 2013-08-15
• JayDee estimated 5% on 2013-08-21
• jbluphin estimated 5% on 2014-02-01
• Mati estimated 1% and said “In a simulation maybe, but not in a story (except as a joke). ” on 2014-02-14
• player_03 estimated 5% on 2014-04-26
• dpchalmers estimated 37% on 2014-11-29
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-24.